India or China — will they produce the next Microsoft

At the SuperNova conference yesterday, I heard Lyn Jeffrey from the Institute to the Future, is an independent nonprofit research group.  It looks at trends in the following areas: Technology and society, Health and health care, Global business trends and Changing consumer society.

China and India are far ahead of the US in the mobile phone space. The cell phone will become (even in the US) people's main communication platform and with ever new platform change (from PC to Cell, for example) a new leader emerges. And the next leader might not be a US company like Microsoft. It might be a company from Asia, signaling another area are hegemony in the work is (very) slowly disappearing.

India is adding 5 million new subscribers per month! Yes, 5 million! And it has broken the 100 million subscriber number. (No, I am not exaggerating) Why is this happening? You can read Datacom's press release or read below. It is happening because:

1.  India’s wireless boom is largely the result of government decisions favoring competition.  Both developing and developed countries can learn from India’s regulatory, network infrastructure, handset, and value-added service innovations.

2. India will spend several $billion on wireless infrastructure to accomodate subscriber growth, improve rural coverage, and add advanced services. Significant opportunities exist for leveragin the 450 and 800 MHz bands.

3. India’s consumers require low-cost handsets.  Handsets are now available for as little as $40.  However, many Indian consumers will spend a little more for enhancements such as the ability to download and play music and games.

4.Thanks to low per-minute charges (under $0.03), most Indian consumers pay less than US$10 per month for voice service.  Wireless data yields higher margins for operators, providing incentives for affordable text, music and video services.

OH yea. China has close to 500 Million Mobile phone users.

Net Neutrality

Congress is threatening the Internet's First Amendment. Let me rephrase that. Congress is caving into the lobbyists from cable companies and telcos. Companies like AT&T and Comcast, which want to slap users with a surcharge if they want faster access to the web. Talk about being desperate for a buck. It is time for us to save the internet. I am not an idealist (well, at least 20% of the time. .. i must admit that my friends can't figure out why I am always a half glass full, optimist), but the power of information is to make it available to anyone who wants to learn…. to gain knowledge.

One of the nice things about all of this is that Google, Apple, and Microsoft are on the same side for once. Unfortunately, the US House of Reps rejected the Net Neutrality amendment. Now the ball is in the Senate's court.

As Time Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web, and one of the superheroes in my life said:

The neutral communications medium is essential to our society. It is the basis of a fair competitive market economy. It is the basis of democracy, by which a community should decide what to do. It is the basis of science, by which humankind should decide what is true. Let us protect the neutrality of the net."

For me, there is a bigger issue. I am very fortunate to be where I am in life. And once of the reasons I am here today is that I was able to afford to pay for reading tutors when I was a kid. In fact, I worked with the infamous Kathrine de Hirsh and Janet Jansky. The two of them are know for their groundbreaking work in helping kids learn how to read.

Now, I feel like I learn something new everyday from the internet. But I can still afford to pay for my service. What about those folks who can't afford to be taxed on surfing the web.?

So, I am hoping that Net Neutrality maintains its momentum and that AT&T and Comcast find other ways to generate revenue. Maybe they should study Earthlink…. a company that started out as an ISP and is now reinventing itself as it becomes the leading provider of WIFI in several major US cities.

Decisions being made now will shape the future of the Internet for a generation. Before long, all media — TV, phone and the Web — will come to your home via the same broadband connection. The dispute over Net Neutrality is about who'll control access to new and emerging technologies.

On the Internet, consumers are in ultimate control — deciding between content, applications and services available anywhere, no matter who owns the network. There's no middleman. But without Net Neutrality, the Internet will look more like cable TV.

The Internet has always been driven by innovation. Web sites and services succeeded or failed on their own merit. Without Net Neutrality, decisions now made collectively by millions of users will be made in corporate boardrooms.

This would be a bummer! 

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